Date: Fri, 5 Dec 2003 07:02:57 -0700 (MST)
From: Greenews <greenews@greenpeace.it>
Greenpeace alla COP9: ecco lo scioglimento dei ghiacciai, addio alla corrente del golfo

Milano , 5 dicembre 2003- Il ghiaccio ai poli ed in Groenlandia e nei
ghiacciai di tutto il mondo si scioglie ad un ritmo impressionante con
l'aumentare della temperatura terrestre. La denuncia viene dal libro
"L'equilibrio della criosfera" presentato oggi in una conferenza stampa di
Greenpeace alla Cop9, insieme ai glaciologi Jonathan Bamber e Anthony Payne,
dell'universita' di Bristol. L'opera raccoglie i contributi di 23 scienziati
che esaminano lo stato della copertura di ghiaccio nel pianeta. La criosfera
comprende tutte le acque ed il suolo della Terra che sono coperte di
ghiaccio ed e' un importante indicatore del cambiamento climatico.
"Il ghiaccio e la neve sono in ritirata ovunque e tutti gli scienziati
concordano che l'aumento costante della temperatura causera' dei seri danni
nel prossimo secolo- ha detto il professor Bamber, a Milano - La corrente
del Golfo che oggi dona all'Europa un clima mite potrebbe rallentare o
interrompersi a causa delle acque fredde provenienti dallo scioglimento dei
ghiacciai al Polo" Le conoscenze scientifiche, per fortuna, crescono, ma lo
scenario che si delinea sembra peggiore rispetto alle previsioni fatte
finora dai glaciologi.
La massa di ghiaccio del Polo Nord, ad esempio, si e' ridotta drasticamente
nel periodo estivo negli ultimi 20 anni e potrebbe scomparire del tutto nel
giro di un secolo. Per la Groenlandia si parla di una riduzione della meta'
della massa della criosfera nei prossimi 500-1000 anni, con un'innalzamento
del livello del mare di 3 metri. L'innalzamento del mare di 1 metro e mezzo
basterebbe a far evacuare 17 milioni di persone solo in Bangladesh. Meno
ghiaccio significhera' anche un clima più caldo, visto il mancato assorbimen
to delle radiazioni solari e la perdita dell'habitat per orsi polari, foche
ed altri grandi predatori. "Lo scioglimento dei ghiacciai e' un segnale
chiaro delle conseguenze del mancato impegno dei governi nel combattere il
cambiamento climatico. Il comportamento di Stati Uniti, Australia e Russia
e' immorale,illegale e costituisce una dichiarazione di guerra nei confronti
delle future generazioni e dei paesi in via di sviluppo che più soffriranno
le conseguenze del cambiamento climatico" ha detto Steve Sawyer, capo
delegazione di Greenpeace alla Cop9.

______________

Date: Tue, 9 Dec 2003 12:02:41 +0100
From: Vincenzo Ferrara <ferrara@mail.casaccia.enea.it>
Subject: INFO: Per attuare il Protocollo di Kyoto, l'Italia porge carote alla Russia.

Italy Offers Russia Kyoto Carrots

The Moscow Times, Monday, Dec. 8, 2003. Page 7

MILAN, Italy -- Italy plans to help finance projects in Russia to reduce
greenhouse gases and to demonstrate to President Vladimir Putin the
economic benefits of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, an international accord
to combat global warming.
This week Italy will announce its intention to invest in a fund for Russian
projects, regardless of whether Russia ratifies the accord, Corrado Clini,
director general of Italy's Environment Ministry said at the United Nations
convention on climate change in Milan. If Russia were to ratify Kyoto, the
projects would help Italy meet its emission-reduction goals.
Implementation of Kyoto hinges on Russian approval. Andrei Illarionov,
Putin's economic adviser, on Tuesday said Russia would not ratify the
treaty because it would slow economic growth. A day later, Deputy Economic
and Trade Development Minister Muhammad Tsikhanov said Russia was moving
toward ratification.
"Italy understands that without Russia the Kyoto Protocol is a useless
piece of paper to throw in the rubbish bin," said Sergei Roginko, a Russian
government official overseeing Kyoto-related investments. Roginko said he
is trying to persuade Russia to ratify the treaty with backing from
companies, regional leaders and countries such as Italy and Germany.
The Kyoto Protocol allows developed countries to earn credits for funding
projects in areas such as Eastern Europe and Latin America. Countries like
Italy can use the credits to help meet 2010 emissions targets, instead of
paying for more costly measures at home or buying credits through an
emissions-trading system. They also encourage investment in emerging
economies.
Russia needs to invest between $3 billion and $4 billion per year on energy
efficiency, according to its Energy Ministry,
"We believe that there are good economic reasons to ratify the Kyoto
Protocol," said Artur Runge-Metzger of the European Commission's climate
change unit.
Companies such as BP, Europe's biggest oil company, and Tokyo Electric
Power Co., Asia's largest power company, are already backing a World Bank
carbon fund that has invested $180 million in projects such as a
hydroelectric power station in Chile and the conversion of a coal-fired
power plant in Hungary so it can burn cleaner fuels.
The 120 nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol since it was drawn up
in 1997 are counting on Russia's support because it accounts for 17 percent
of greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels. The protocol must be ratified
by industrial nations that produce 55 percent of greenhouse gases for it to
take effect. The United States, the world's biggest producer of such
pollution with 36 percent of 1990 emissions, has rejected the treaty.
In October, the European Commission published draft legislation that would
allow credits earned in developing countries to be used in its
emissions-trading market, due to start in 2005.
Such trading may encourage companies to invest in projects because the
credits could be sold for cash, improving returns, officials said. The
rules for such a transfer may be agreed upon as early as April because the
system is supported by all the EU member states and the European
Parliament, said Jurgen Salay of the commission's climate change unit.
Without Russian ratification, however, such mechanisms and Italy's proposed
investment will lose value.
Linking projects in emerging markets to the European emissions-trading
system "would make ratification more possible, but it's not the only reason
for doing so," said Oleg Pluzhnikov, deputy chief of the ecological
department of Russia's Energy Ministry. "Joint initiatives could become a
very good mechanism to attract a significant amount of the funds" to
upgrade Russia's energy industry.
National delegates and observers at the Milan convention said they expect
Russia to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, probably after presidential elections
in March.

______________

Date: Tue, 9 Dec 2003 04:07:16 -0700 (MST)
 From: Greenews <greenews@greenpeace.it>
Subject: Greenews --- COP9, climbers di GP in azione
 GREENPEACE ALLA COP9: EUROPA INVESTI NELL'EOLICO, BASTA CON IL NUCLEARE

Milano, 9 dicembre 2003 - I climbers di Greenpeace sono entrati in azione
questa mattina alla Fiera di Milano, dove si svolge la Cop9, aprendo un
enorme striscione con scritto "Europe Europe go wind", con il simbolo
dell'energia atomica nella lettera "O" che si trasforma fino ad assumere la
forma di un'elica dei generatori eolici.
Secondo Greenpeace il nucleare e' una fonte energetica vecchia, costosa e
pericolosa e che pone il problema irrisolto delle scorie. Il nucleare e' in
declino: nessun reattore e' stato installato negli ultimi 4 anni e ce ne
vorranno almeno altri 10 prima che entri in funzione una nuova centrale e
allo stesso tempo molte dovranno essere smantellate.
Nonostante questo l'Italia, paese che ospita la conferenza sul clima e
presiede l'Unione Europea, sta investendo nell'energia nucleare invece che
nelle rinnovabili.
"Bisogna sconfiggere il cambiamento climatico, ma l'Europa non deve puntare
sul nucleare come qualche dinosauro vorrebbe, ma scegliere energie pulite,
sicure ed inesauribili. Bisogna avere il coraggio di dire no alle lobby
nucleariste e scegliere l'eolico" afferma Ascanio Vitale, responsabile
campagna clima di Greenpeace.
L'energia eolica, invece, sta vivendo un forte sviluppo tecnologico e una
crescita della potenza installata: in Germania soltanto, oltre 3.200MW di
eolico sono stati installati lo scorso anno e forniscono energia a piu' di 2
milioni di case. Nell' Unione Europea, si prevede l'installazione di
75.000MW di eolico entro il 2010, triplicando la potenza installata oggi ed
aggiungendo l'equivalente della produzione di 14 grandi centrali nucleari.
Secondo lo studio di Greenpeace "Eolo o Plutonio?", che ha analizzato il
caso del contestato reattore EPR, che verrebbe costruito in Francia con una
partecipazione anche dell'Enel, e' possibile con un investimento equivalente
produrre 2.3 volte piu' energia ed ottenere 5 volte piu' posti di lavoro
investendo nell'eolico. Con un impianto eolico si darebbe energia a 6,5
milioni di case, con il nucleare a meno della meta'.
"L'energia nucleare e' la piu' vulnerabile agli effetti del cambiamento
climatico ed un obiettivo critico di eventuali attacchi terroristici, mentre
una rete di piccoli impianti e l'uso delle fonti rinnovabili ci garantiscono
meno black-out e zero rischi" ha detto Ascanio Vitale, responsabile campagna
clima di Greenpeace.
Domani, 10 Dicembre, la Commissione Europea dovrebbe proporre il pacchetto
Energia: tre direttive che riguardano la sicurezza dell'approvvigionamento
d'energia ed il rischio black-out, linee guida per reti transeuropee e
l'accesso alle reti di trasmissione di gas. La sicurezza
dell'approvvigionamento energetico dovrebbe essere anche discussa al
Consiglio dei ministri Energia il prossimo 15 dicembre.
Di' subito NO anche tu ai progetti dell'ENEL sul nucleare in Francia, invia
un'email al presidnete dell'ENEL collegandoti a:
<http://www.greenpeace.it/clima/cyber.htm>
Leggi lo studio "Eolo o Plutonio?", in francese su
<http://www.greenpeace.fr/>

_______

Date: Tue, 9 Dec 2003 11:05:36 +0100
To: Esperti:;
From: Vincenzo Ferrara <ferrara@mail.casaccia.enea.it>
Subject: INFO 1:  Mentre a Milano si discute, i cambiamenti del clima vanno avanti
  e i maggiori rischi sono per i paesi più poveri. 
 INFO 2: Se vogliamo combattere i cambiamenti climatici, dobbiamo 
 combattere il sottosviluppo. INFO 3: La Conferenza di Milano 
 è un fischio nel vento: manca la 
 volontà di ridurre effettivamente le emissioni.

INFO 1:  Mentre a Milano si discute, i cambiamenti del clima vanno avanti e
i maggiori rischi sono per i paesi più poveri.

Climate talks must focus more on poor: UN head
Reuters, December 09, 2003, 08:06 AM
Climate talks in Italy this week should involve poor states more in slowing
global warming because the UN's Kyoto protocol governing rich states does
not go far enough, the head of a UN commission said yesterday.
Delegates at a UN climate conference in Milan also said that Sunday's
parliamentary elections in Russia, which has an effective veto on Kyoto,
could make ratification by Moscow more likely, but not until after
presidential polls in 2004.
"We will need stronger measures after Kyoto," said Boerge Brende, the
chairperson of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development. Brende, who is
also Norway's environment minister, said the 180-nation talks should focus
beyond Kyoto despite uncertainties about Russia. "We need to start
involving developing nations. I'm not saying that they have to promise to
cut emissions but they have to take more part in the dialogue."
The US pulled out of Kyoto, which will last until 2012, arguing that it
wrongly excluded developing nations and that its targets were too costly.
Putin has also expressed worries that Kyoto will brake Russian economic
growth.

Brende noted that China was among the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases
like carbon dioxide, blamed by scientists for blanketing the planet and
driving up temperatures.

Kyoto seeks average cuts of 5.2% in rich nations' emissions of greenhouse
gases from 1990 levels by 2008-12. Developing nations have no targets for
cuts.

Reuters

------------
INFO 2: Se vogliamo combattere i cambiamenti climatici, dobbiamo combattere
il sottosviluppo

Tuesday, December 09, 2003
 
Experts discount generic  fix for global warming

InterPress Service

The failure or success of the embattled Kyoto Protocol on reducing
greenhouse gas emissions should not sway countries in the South from
developing their own, more appropriate agreements, according to a new
report. Kyoto-or a Kyoto-type of agreement-will not work for developing
countries, Elliot Diringer, director of international strategies at the Pew
Center on Global Climate Change, told.

A wide range of mechanisms, and regional approaches in particular, will be
needed instead, the Pew report says.  The United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change is meeting in Milan, Italy, from December 1-12
to attempt to rescue the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.  The Protocol is an agreement
on reducing greenhouse gas emissions that has been signed by 177 countries,
including the United States. While the George W. Bush administration
withdrew its support, the agreement could still be enforced if Russia joins
the European countries and others, including Canada that has ratified it.
Russia was widely expected to ratify the treaty until top officials
expressed concerns this month that it would hinder economic growth.

However, even with strong efforts far beyond those of Kyoto in developed
countries, developing country emissions must fall below business-as-usual
projections if atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are to be
stabilized by 2100, the Pew report notes.  The report, 'Beyond Kyoto:
Advancing the International Effort Against Climate Change,' found that the
rapid rise in GHG emissions in the South is driven by development
imperatives-in particular, the need for energy and economic growth. This is
actively encouraged by flows of investment and technology supporting
conventional paths of development.

The authors of the report consulted experts, officials and stakeholders
from more than 30 countries. Pew is a nonpartisan US-based group funded by
charitable organizations. "Trade and development flows from the North need
to be recast to both meet the needs of the South and the need to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions," said Diringer.

Development assistance for energy ought to be directed to low-carbon
emitting energy sources, he notes. However, this does not open the door for
mega-dams or nuclear power plants because they pose their own significant
environmental impacts. But in order to focus on climate change, more
pressing issues of food security, poverty relief, energy growth and access,
urban transport, and land use need to be addressed first, the report
advises.

The study, which reviewed all of the available scientific data, was carried
out by Thomas Karl of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's
(noaa) National Climatic Data Center in the state of North Carolina, and
Kevin Trenberth, director of the Climate Analysis Section at the National
Center for Atmospheric Research (ncar) in Colorado. It appears in the
December 5 issue of the journal Science.

The Manila Times

----------------------
INFO 3: La Conferenza di Milano è un fischio nel vento: manca la volontà di
ridurre effettivamente le emissioni, secondo una fonte araba reperibile in
internet.

A Warming Planet with Closed Eyes

ISLAM-OM-LINE, 09/12/2003

Over 180 delegates to the UN Conference on climate change are meeting in
Milan, Italy between Dec 2-12 to discuss evidence for global warming, the
prospects for ratification and implementation of the Kyoto Treaty and
international efforts to rein in a rise in global temperatures. Yet, with
the assault on multilateral initiatives in recent years by the Bush regime,
even the modest expectations of this meeting face sabotage. The US is
aggressively maintaining its opposition to Kyoto and attention is now
focused on whether Russia will save Kyoto by ratifying it next year or
finally scupper it by refusing to sign up.

Kyoto must be ratified by at least 55 countries, including those
responsible for causing 55 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions in
1990, in order to come into force. With the United States refusing to
ratify the protocol, that minimum can now only be reached with Russian
participation.

The signs do not look good. Vladimir Putin himself has recently expressed
doubts as to whether implementation of Kyoto will have any effect on global
warming, and his economic adviser, Andrei Illarionov, has argued the treaty
would doom Russia to poverty, weakness, and backwardness.

Gloomy Forecast

While delegates to the UN meeting will put a brave face on things arguing
that many countries that have signed up will implement the Kyoto targets
regardless of whether it will formally enter into force, prospects for a
genuine global multilateral response to slow - let alone to reverse -
climate change look worse now than ever before.

The Kyoto Treaty commits signatories to reduce levels of carbon dioxide
emissions by 2012 to 92% of 1990 levels.  By the UN's own admission, Kyoto
itself is "a peanut" in terms of longer term initiatives needed to combat
the trends in global warming, which almost all scientists now agree is
being directly affected by the actions of humankind.

Yet, despite containing such modest goals, all the evidence indicates not
only that developed countries will have enormous difficulties in meeting
the Kyoto targets, but that in fact energy consumption across the world
will rise significantly in the next 25 years with a corresponding rise in
carbon emissions. Conservative estimates predict a rise of 8% in emissions
from the highly industrialized world between 2000-2010.

Those with profits to be made are banking on even higher consumption
trends. Randy Broiles, global planning manager for Exxon's oil and gas
production unit, recently predicted 40% growth in energy consumption across
the world by 2020, and a corresponding increase in carbon emissions of 50%.
Broiles attributed a fair proportion of this rise to increased car use.
There are now 15 cars for every 1,000 people in the world, Broiles said,
but ExxonMobil expects that number to rise to 50 cars per 1,000 by 2020. 
Unsuprisingly, ExxonMobil remain upbeat about such forecasts: "The oil
resource base is huge -- it's huge -- and we expect it to satisfy world
demand growth well beyond 2020," Broile assured us.

Blood for Oil

In an interview before the Milan conference, U.S. National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration Chief, retired Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher
Jr., blithely asserted that, "Climate science is at the beginning of its
life. I do believe we need more scientific info before we commit to a
process like Kyoto." In this belief at least, the US appears to lead the
consumers and producers of the industrialized and industrializing world,
whose appetite for energy far outweighs any concern about impending
environmental catastrophe.

Despite such an appetite, many studies appear to contradict ExxonMobil's
optimism about the amount of oil available to meet this demand. In fact, it
appears that demand for oil is outstripping supply and that production of
crude oil across the world is soon about to peak.

However, this is unlikely to bring about the much-needed rationalisation of
global energy consumption if global warming is to be halted. Instead, as
Monbiot argues, it is more likely to lead to an ever more rapacious and
ruthless search for global reserves of crude. We have already witnessed one
'blood for oil' war in Iraq, and the possibility remains that other 'oil
fuelled' wars will follow in Central Asia and the Caucasus. As the supply
of crude oil becomes restricted its price will also rocket, causing
recession and unemployment as the global economy, utterly dependent on oil,
suffers major withdrawal symptoms from its 'fix'. ExxonMobil and the like
will see short-term profits soar, but all the time the planet continues to
cook.

Few Alternatives

There are also few prospects on the horizon for alternative technologies
capable of substituting the central place of oil in the industrial economy,
or for countering the effects of increasing carbon dioxide in the
environment - for example, growing more trees. In fact, it seems there is
only one solution to the problem of global warming: to drastically cut back
on our energy consumption levels.

Scientists and environmentalists say the world will need to reduce energy
consumption levels by as much as 70% by mid-century if we are to credibly
avoid the projected rise in the world's temperature and its potential
effects. In particular, environmentalists argue the global agriculture and
transport sectors - those most heavily dependent on oil - need to be
completely restructured in order to account both for the decline in oil
supply and for the cuts in energy consumption needed to counter global
warming.

The political will for such a decision and the enormous social and economic
reorganisation it would entail seems on current trends to be completely
lacking. Until it arises, initiatives like the Milan conference and its
associated politicking represent little more than whistling in the wind.

Islam Online Headquarter
Doha - Qatar P.O.Box: 22212
Tel: +974 - 4457 744
Fax: +974 - 4358 844
<http://www.islam-online.net/English/index.shtml>

**********************************************
Vincenzo FERRARA
Head of the ENEA Special Project on "Global Climate"
Italy's Focal Point of the IPCC

Tel.: +3906.3048.3608; +3932.9831.3189
Fax:  +3906.3048.6695
Web: <http://clima.casaccia.enea.it/ipcc/focalpoint/>

_______________

Date: Wed, 10 Dec 2003 09:04:37 +0100
To: Esperti:;
From: Vincenzo Ferrara <ferrara@mail.casaccia.enea.it>
Subject: INFO: Informazioni pervenute da, e intorno a, COP-9 di Milano

Wed, Dec. 10, 2003
Scientists Measure Human Impact on Climate

Associated Press

SAN FRANCISCO - Measurements of ancient air bubbles trapped in Antarctic
ice offered evidence that humans have been changing the global climate
since thousands of years before the industrial revolution.

Beginning 8,000 years ago, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide began to
rise as humans started clearing forests, planting crops and raising
livestock, a scientist said Tuesday. Methane levels started increasing
3,000 years later.

The combined increases of the two greenhouse gases implicated in global
warming were slow but steady and staved off what should have been a period
of significant natural cooling, said Bill Ruddiman, emeritus professor at
the University of Virginia.

The changes also disrupted regular patterns that dominated the 400,000
years of atmospheric history that scientists have teased from samples of
ancient ice.

"You have 395,000 years of history, which sets some rules, and 5,000 years
that break those rules," Ruddiman said.

Ruddiman briefed reporters on his theory Tuesday at the fall meeting of the
American Geophysical Union. Further details appear in the December issue of
the journal Climatic Change.

Previously, scientists widely assumed it was only with the onset of the
factory age that human activity had any significant effect on the global
climate. The prehistoric changes in carbon dioxide and methane levels have
been noted before but were attributed to natural causes, Ruddiman said.

"It's a great new idea we need to talk about and evaluate," said Bette
Otto-Bliesner, a paleoclimate expert at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research, who was not connected with the research.

Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and methane naturally fluctuate, in
part because of changes in the orbit of the Earth and the resulting
variations in the amounts of sunlight.

But human activity apparently thwarted expected decreases in the
atmospheric concentrations of both gases. Leading the change was the
revolutionary adoption, across both Europe and Asia, of agriculture and
animal husbandry, Ruddiman said.

Analysis of air trapped in ice cores drilled from the Antarctic ice sheet
show anomalous increases in carbon dioxide levels beginning 8,000 years ago
- just as crop lands began to replace previously forested regions across
Asia and Europe.

About 5,000 years ago, the ice cores reflect a similarly anomalous rise in
methane levels, this time tied to increased emissions from flooded rice
fields, as well as burgeoning numbers of livestock, Ruddiman said.

The prehistoric practices apparently overrode a buildup of ice that models
predict should have occurred beginning 5,000 years ago.

Associated Press

----------
Kyoto Protocol hangs in the balance at UN meeting
AFP - Wednesday, 10 December , 2003,

Milan: Environment ministers from around the world were meeting here
Wednesday for talks on climate change and the UN's Kyoto Protocol, the
global warming pact whose fate now hangs in the balance.

The two-day mustering of signatories to the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the first since Russia started sending out
conflicting signals on whether it would ratify Kyoto, the only global deal
to cut greenhouse gases blamed for changing Earth's climate.

Diplomats said divisions over Kyoto were so profound that the meeting had
been framed to skirt any controversy or decision-making and would instead
use "round tables" to air specific problems of climate change.

"The essential thing now is to get the Protocol implemented, it really is
not the time for a row," a delegate from a European country told AFP. "Even
the word 'discussions' is being avoided. The preferred term is
'conversations'."

A total of 180 countries were being represented at the meeting, about 90 of
them at ministerial level. But doubts circulated whether Italian Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi would show up, as scheduled, to make a speech at
the opening ceremonies - an absence that would confirm Kyoto's political
isolation.

The Kyoto Protocol is the most ambitious environmental agreement ever
attempted. It requires industrialised signatories to cut emissions of six
carbon gases by a timetable of 2008-2012 as compared to their 1990 levels.

Agence France Press

-------------
Adapt to climate change, report urges
ABC Australia - Wednesday, 10 December  2003 

Australians must be prepared to adapt to the impacts of hotter
temperatures, drought, wild weather and bushfires, according to a new
government report. Australian environment minister Dr David Kemp launched
the report, Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and
Potential Impacts, this week at an international climate change meeting in
Milan, Italy.

Water supplies, coral reefs, farming and fisheries would be affected by
climate change, the report said. There would also likely be increased
building insurance premiums, even tighter water restrictions, falling
coastal property values and interrupted electricity supplies. The impacts
of climate change overseas could even affect Australia through trade and
commodity prices, the report said.

"Australia is vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation
projected for the next 50 to 100 years," the report said. It acknowledged
that impacts of climate change would be "complex and to some degree
uncertain". "The high probability of at least some global warming, given
the inertia in the climate and socio-economic systems, means that some
adaptation will be necessary."

Commenting on the report, Anna Reynolds, climate change campaigner with the
conservation group WWF Australia, argued the government was not doing
enough to minimise emissions linked to global warming.  "It's quite
dangerous to put out a message to the Australian community to say 'okay,
we're stuck with quite a high level of change, get used to using less
water, get used to extreme impacts, get used to higher insurance costs,"
she told. "Because if governments like Australia's take emission reduction
seriously in the next one to two decades, we can actually avoid some of
these impacts."

She said that many scientists believed that keeping global warming to
within 2°C of pre-industrial levels was essential to prevent the harmful
and irreversible effects of climate change such as major changes in ocean
circulation and major ice sheet breakages. She cited a report from the
German Advisory Council on Global Change tabled at the Milan conference.
The report said the target was only possible if countries like Australia
cut emissions by 45 to 60% by 2050. "This is 50 years ahead of where the
Australian government is at," Reynolds said.

A spokesperson for the environment minister told from Milan that he had not
seen the German report. But he said Australia would accept a reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 60% by the end of the century, rather
than by 2050.

ABC Australia

-----------
Climate change doubles Britain's stormy weather
The Guardian - Wednesday December 10, 2003

Britain has become twice as stormy in the past 50 years as climate change
has forced the deep depressions that used to hit Iceland further south, it
was revealed yesterday. In a second disturbing discovery, the Hadley Centre
for climate prediction and research in Exeter added that pressure changes
in the atmosphere had caused storms to become more intense.

While low pressure areas which bring high wind and rain are getting deeper,
the high pressure areas which bring calm, settled periods are getting
stronger. The increased gradients between the two make for more dramatic
weather - and for insurance companies, expensive claims for damaged
buildings and fences.

Geoff Jenkins, head of the Hadley Centre, released the figures at the
climate change convention meeting in Milan, where politicians are still
trying to reach agreement on the Kyoto protocol to start legally binding
reductions in greenhouse gas releases to the atmosphere.

The report says whatever politicians decide, some climate change and sea
level rise is already built into the system and current trends will
accelerate. "The contrast between the slight decrease in the number of
storms in Iceland and the increase over the UK is pretty conclusive
evidence that the storm track, or North Atlantic oscillation as we call it,
has moved south," Dr Jenkins said.

"As far as the pressure anomaly is concerned, this is much higher than we
predicted in our models, and it basically means that the westerly winds
across the British Isles have increased in strength. This is significantly
larger than explicable by natural variation, and must be man-made climate
change."

According to the classic weather model, there was high pressure over the
Azores and low pressure over Iceland, with British weather in between the
two. Peter Stott, the Hadley scientist who carried out the study, said the
high pressure over this country was around 1,030 millibars, and the low
pressure 970.

But over the past 50 years, the high pressures have increased on average by
three millibars and the lows have deepened by the same amount. This has led
to an increase in the winds and in wind damage.

A collaboration between Britain, Canada and Australia established anomalies
across the globe but nowhere were they greater than over northern Europe
and particularly the UK. A telling graphic produced by the researchers of
the observed storm track - the line between high and low pressure belts -
shows England just to the south of the main track and northern Scotland
right in its path.

Because the instruments used to measure wind speeds were unreliable and
liable to be moved from time to time, Dr Stott said, scientists had used an
alternative method to measure storms. "Out at sea what fishermen and all
sailors have learned to dread is a sudden drop in pressure. If the
barometer drops 10 millibars in three hours... it means there will be a
gale or worse. Examples of that happening in the UK weather record have dou
bled over 50 years. That is very significant statistically."

Although Dr Jenkins is confident the increased intensity of high and low
pressures can be attributable to climate change and is a significant
development in understanding the science, the long-term storminess trends
are more uncertain.

While researchers have been able to use the data for the past 50 years to
establish that storms have increased, they do not have any reliable data
for the 50 years before that to establish whether it was as stormy in 1900s
as it is now.

The Hadley report also records a continued steep rise in global
temperatures during 2003, and it shows average land temperatures across the
world were 1C higher than a century ago for the first eight months of this
year. In England, the warmest January-to-September period was recorded in
central England since records began in 1659, including the hottest day ever
recorded, at 38.5C (101.3F)

Dr Stott said warmer weather had continued since September and 2003 was
heading towards being the warmest year recorded in Britain.

Summary of  "Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom"

- Drier summers, wetter winters - and little snow

- Average annual temperatures may rise by between 2 and 3.5 C by the 2080s,
with greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west of
the UK. Hot, humid summers will become more frequent and very cold winters
will become increasingly rare

- The 1990s was the warmest decade in central England since records began
in the 1660s and this warming of climate over land has been accompanied by
warming of UK coastal waters. 2003 is on track to be the warmest year on
record

- Winters will become wetter and summers may become drier across all of the
UK. The largest changes will be in the south and east, where summer
rainfall may decline by up to 50% by the 2080s. The amount of snow could
decline by 60%-90% by the 2080s

- Snowfall will decrease throughout the UK. The reductions in average
snowfall over Scotland might be between 60% and 90% (depending on the
region)

- Average sea level around the UK is now about 10cm (4ins) higher than in
1900 and levels could be between 26 and 86cm above the current level in
south-east England by the 2080s. Extreme high water levels, which currently
have a 2% annual probability, could become 10 to 20 times more frequent at
some east coast locations

- The thermal growing season for plants in central England has lengthened
by about one month since 1900

The Guardian

-------------
Italy Faults EU Commission on Russia Kyoto Tactics
Tue 9 December, 2003 15:47

MILAN (Reuters) - Italy accused the European Commission on Tuesday of
wrongly using strongarm tactics to try to get Russia to ratify a key U.N.
pact on global warming that will collapse if Moscow says "No." Environment
Minister Altero Matteoli, whose country is hosting 180-nation U.N. talks on
climate change and the Kyoto protocol from December 1-12, said he felt
confident that Moscow would ratify Kyoto in the end but urged softer
methods.

"The very high level of pressure has caused discomfort in the Russian
government," he told a news conference. "It's a psychological attitude by
the Russians," he said. "If we release the pressure psychologically
speaking they may be quicker in ratifying the Kyoto protocol."

He did not spell out what he felt was wrong about tactics used by the
European Union's executive Commission to try to persuade Russia to sign up
to the pact, which was dealt a blow in 2001 by a U.S. pullout.

The EU has held out the prospect of a lucrative market for Moscow to trade
pollution quotas because the collapse of its Soviet-era smokestack
industries means that it will have no problem meeting goals under Kyoto for
limiting emissions. Kyoto aims to curb emissions of gases blamed for higher
temperatures that may be spurring catastrophes from droughts to heat waves.

"I think Russia will ratify," Matteoli said, even though Russia has backed
away from promises to ratify soon.

GMO TREES

All growing plants absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and Kyoto will
give nations credits for planting forests. Apart from Russia, the dispute
on defining forestry projects is one of the last hurdles to Kyoto.

"GMOs could be a sticking point that will have to be resolved by
ministers," said Jennifer Morgan of the WWF environment group.

Nations including Canada, Argentina and China, which see benefits from
planting fast-growing disease-resistant GMOs, were arguing for their
inclusion while countries wary of GMO crops like EU nations were opposed,
environmental groups said.

Stephen Guilbeault of Greenpeace said the details of the use of forests to
absorb carbon dioxide were the last mechanism to be agreed before Kyoto
could start working, if ratified.

Matteoli also said that the conference resolved future funding of the U.N.
climate bureaucracy despite reluctance by the United States to fund Kyoto
measures.

Matteoli also signed a deal with oil and gas group ENI meant to cut Italy's
carbon dioxide at ENI oil and gas installations around the world.

**********************************************
Vincenzo FERRARA
Head of the ENEA Special Project on "Global Climate"
Italy's Focal Point of the IPCC

Tel.: +3906.3048.3608; +3932.9831.3189
Fax:  +3906.3048.6695
Web: <http://clima.casaccia.enea.it/ipcc/focalpoint/>

_______________ 

Date: Wed, 10 Dec 2003 09:04:37 +0100
From: Vincenzo Ferrara <ferrara@mail.casaccia.enea.it>
Subject: INFO: Informazioni pervenute da, e intorno a, COP-9 di Milano

Wed, Dec. 10, 2003 Associated Press
   Scientists Measure Human Impact on Climate

SAN FRANCISCO - Measurements of ancient air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice offered evidence that humans have been changing the global climate since thousands of years before the industrial revolution.
Beginning 8,000 years ago, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide began to rise as humans started clearing forests, planting crops and raising livestock, a scientist said Tuesday. Methane levels started increasing 3,000 years later.
The combined increases of the two greenhouse gases implicated in global warming were slow but steady and staved off what should have been a period of significant natural cooling, said Bill Ruddiman, emeritus professor at the University of Virginia.
The changes also disrupted regular patterns that dominated the 400,000 years of atmospheric history that scientists have teased from samples of ancient ice. "You have 395,000 years of history, which sets some rules, and 5,000 years that break those rules," Ruddiman said.

Ruddiman briefed reporters on his theory Tuesday at the fall meeting of the
American Geophysical Union. Further details appear in the December issue of
the journal Climatic Change.

Previously, scientists widely assumed it was only with the onset of the
factory age that human activity had any significant effect on the global
climate. The prehistoric changes in carbon dioxide and methane levels have
been noted before but were attributed to natural causes, Ruddiman said.

"It's a great new idea we need to talk about and evaluate," said Bette
Otto-Bliesner, a paleoclimate expert at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research, who was not connected with the research.

Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and methane naturally fluctuate, in
part because of changes in the orbit of the Earth and the resulting
variations in the amounts of sunlight.

But human activity apparently thwarted expected decreases in the
atmospheric concentrations of both gases. Leading the change was the
revolutionary adoption, across both Europe and Asia, of agriculture and
animal husbandry, Ruddiman said.

Analysis of air trapped in ice cores drilled from the Antarctic ice sheet
show anomalous increases in carbon dioxide levels beginning 8,000 years ago
- just as crop lands began to replace previously forested regions across
Asia and Europe.

About 5,000 years ago, the ice cores reflect a similarly anomalous rise in
methane levels, this time tied to increased emissions from flooded rice
fields, as well as burgeoning numbers of livestock, Ruddiman said.

The prehistoric practices apparently overrode a buildup of ice that models
predict should have occurred beginning 5,000 years ago.

Associated Press

----------
Kyoto Protocol hangs in the balance at UN meeting
AFP - Wednesday, 10 December , 2003,

Milan: Environment ministers from around the world were meeting here
Wednesday for talks on climate change and the UN's Kyoto Protocol, the
global warming pact whose fate now hangs in the balance.

The two-day mustering of signatories to the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the first since Russia started sending out
conflicting signals on whether it would ratify Kyoto, the only global deal
to cut greenhouse gases blamed for changing Earth's climate.

Diplomats said divisions over Kyoto were so profound that the meeting had
been framed to skirt any controversy or decision-making and would instead
use "round tables" to air specific problems of climate change.

"The essential thing now is to get the Protocol implemented, it really is
not the time for a row," a delegate from a European country told AFP. "Even
the word 'discussions' is being avoided. The preferred term is
'conversations'."

A total of 180 countries were being represented at the meeting, about 90 of
them at ministerial level. But doubts circulated whether Italian Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi would show up, as scheduled, to make a speech at
the opening ceremonies - an absence that would confirm Kyoto's political
isolation.

The Kyoto Protocol is the most ambitious environmental agreement ever
attempted. It requires industrialised signatories to cut emissions of six
carbon gases by a timetable of 2008-2012 as compared to their 1990 levels.

Agence France Press

-------------
Adapt to climate change, report urges
ABC Australia - Wednesday, 10 December  2003 

Australians must be prepared to adapt to the impacts of hotter
temperatures, drought, wild weather and bushfires, according to a new
government report. Australian environment minister Dr David Kemp launched
the report, Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and
Potential Impacts, this week at an international climate change meeting in
Milan, Italy.

Water supplies, coral reefs, farming and fisheries would be affected by
climate change, the report said. There would also likely be increased
building insurance premiums, even tighter water restrictions, falling
coastal property values and interrupted electricity supplies. The impacts
of climate change overseas could even affect Australia through trade and
commodity prices, the report said.

"Australia is vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation
projected for the next 50 to 100 years," the report said. It acknowledged
that impacts of climate change would be "complex and to some degree
uncertain". "The high probability of at least some global warming, given
the inertia in the climate and socio-economic systems, means that some
adaptation will be necessary."

Commenting on the report, Anna Reynolds, climate change campaigner with the
conservation group WWF Australia, argued the government was not doing
enough to minimise emissions linked to global warming.  "It's quite
dangerous to put out a message to the Australian community to say 'okay,
we're stuck with quite a high level of change, get used to using less
water, get used to extreme impacts, get used to higher insurance costs,"
she told. "Because if governments like Australia's take emission reduction
seriously in the next one to two decades, we can actually avoid some of
these impacts."

She said that many scientists believed that keeping global warming to
within 2°C of pre-industrial levels was essential to prevent the harmful
and irreversible effects of climate change such as major changes in ocean
circulation and major ice sheet breakages. She cited a report from the
German Advisory Council on Global Change tabled at the Milan conference.
The report said the target was only possible if countries like Australia
cut emissions by 45 to 60% by 2050. "This is 50 years ahead of where the
Australian government is at," Reynolds said.

A spokesperson for the environment minister told from Milan that he had not
seen the German report. But he said Australia would accept a reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 60% by the end of the century, rather
than by 2050.

ABC Australia

-----------
Climate change doubles Britain's stormy weather
The Guardian - Wednesday December 10, 2003

Britain has become twice as stormy in the past 50 years as climate change
has forced the deep depressions that used to hit Iceland further south, it
was revealed yesterday. In a second disturbing discovery, the Hadley Centre
for climate prediction and research in Exeter added that pressure changes
in the atmosphere had caused storms to become more intense.

While low pressure areas which bring high wind and rain are getting deeper,
the high pressure areas which bring calm, settled periods are getting
stronger. The increased gradients between the two make for more dramatic
weather - and for insurance companies, expensive claims for damaged
buildings and fences.

Geoff Jenkins, head of the Hadley Centre, released the figures at the
climate change convention meeting in Milan, where politicians are still
trying to reach agreement on the Kyoto protocol to start legally binding
reductions in greenhouse gas releases to the atmosphere.

The report says whatever politicians decide, some climate change and sea
level rise is already built into the system and current trends will
accelerate. "The contrast between the slight decrease in the number of
storms in Iceland and the increase over the UK is pretty conclusive
evidence that the storm track, or North Atlantic oscillation as we call it,
has moved south," Dr Jenkins said.

"As far as the pressure anomaly is concerned, this is much higher than we
predicted in our models, and it basically means that the westerly winds
across the British Isles have increased in strength. This is significantly
larger than explicable by natural variation, and must be man-made climate
change."

According to the classic weather model, there was high pressure over the
Azores and low pressure over Iceland, with British weather in between the
two. Peter Stott, the Hadley scientist who carried out the study, said the
high pressure over this country was around 1,030 millibars, and the low
pressure 970.

But over the past 50 years, the high pressures have increased on average by
three millibars and the lows have deepened by the same amount. This has led
to an increase in the winds and in wind damage.

A collaboration between Britain, Canada and Australia established anomalies
across the globe but nowhere were they greater than over northern Europe
and particularly the UK. A telling graphic produced by the researchers of
the observed storm track - the line between high and low pressure belts -
shows England just to the south of the main track and northern Scotland
right in its path.

Because the instruments used to measure wind speeds were unreliable and
liable to be moved from time to time, Dr Stott said, scientists had used an
alternative method to measure storms. "Out at sea what fishermen and all
sailors have learned to dread is a sudden drop in pressure. If the
barometer drops 10 millibars in three hours... it means there will be a
gale or worse. Examples of that happening in the UK weather record have dou
bled over 50 years. That is very significant statistically."

Although Dr Jenkins is confident the increased intensity of high and low
pressures can be attributable to climate change and is a significant
development in understanding the science, the long-term storminess trends
are more uncertain.

While researchers have been able to use the data for the past 50 years to
establish that storms have increased, they do not have any reliable data
for the 50 years before that to establish whether it was as stormy in 1900s
as it is now.

The Hadley report also records a continued steep rise in global
temperatures during 2003, and it shows average land temperatures across the
world were 1C higher than a century ago for the first eight months of this
year. In England, the warmest January-to-September period was recorded in
central England since records began in 1659, including the hottest day ever
recorded, at 38.5C (101.3F)

Dr Stott said warmer weather had continued since September and 2003 was
heading towards being the warmest year recorded in Britain.

Summary of  "Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom"

- Drier summers, wetter winters - and little snow

- Average annual temperatures may rise by between 2 and 3.5 C by the 2080s,
with greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west of
the UK. Hot, humid summers will become more frequent and very cold winters
will become increasingly rare

- The 1990s was the warmest decade in central England since records began
in the 1660s and this warming of climate over land has been accompanied by
warming of UK coastal waters. 2003 is on track to be the warmest year on
record

- Winters will become wetter and summers may become drier across all of the
UK. The largest changes will be in the south and east, where summer
rainfall may decline by up to 50% by the 2080s. The amount of snow could
decline by 60%-90% by the 2080s

- Snowfall will decrease throughout the UK. The reductions in average
snowfall over Scotland might be between 60% and 90% (depending on the
region)

- Average sea level around the UK is now about 10cm (4ins) higher than in
1900 and levels could be between 26 and 86cm above the current level in
south-east England by the 2080s. Extreme high water levels, which currently
have a 2% annual probability, could become 10 to 20 times more frequent at
some east coast locations

- The thermal growing season for plants in central England has lengthened
by about one month since 1900

The Guardian

-------------
Italy Faults EU Commission on Russia Kyoto Tactics
Tue 9 December, 2003 15:47

MILAN (Reuters) - Italy accused the European Commission on Tuesday of
wrongly using strongarm tactics to try to get Russia to ratify a key U.N.
pact on global warming that will collapse if Moscow says "No." Environment
Minister Altero Matteoli, whose country is hosting 180-nation U.N. talks on
climate change and the Kyoto protocol from December 1-12, said he felt
confident that Moscow would ratify Kyoto in the end but urged softer
methods.

"The very high level of pressure has caused discomfort in the Russian
government," he told a news conference. "It's a psychological attitude by
the Russians," he said. "If we release the pressure psychologically
speaking they may be quicker in ratifying the Kyoto protocol."

He did not spell out what he felt was wrong about tactics used by the
European Union's executive Commission to try to persuade Russia to sign up
to the pact, which was dealt a blow in 2001 by a U.S. pullout.

The EU has held out the prospect of a lucrative market for Moscow to trade
pollution quotas because the collapse of its Soviet-era smokestack
industries means that it will have no problem meeting goals under Kyoto for
limiting emissions. Kyoto aims to curb emissions of gases blamed for higher
temperatures that may be spurring catastrophes from droughts to heat waves.

"I think Russia will ratify," Matteoli said, even though Russia has backed
away from promises to ratify soon.

GMO TREES

All growing plants absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and Kyoto will
give nations credits for planting forests. Apart from Russia, the dispute
on defining forestry projects is one of the last hurdles to Kyoto.

"GMOs could be a sticking point that will have to be resolved by
ministers," said Jennifer Morgan of the WWF environment group.

Nations including Canada, Argentina and China, which see benefits from
planting fast-growing disease-resistant GMOs, were arguing for their
inclusion while countries wary of GMO crops like EU nations were opposed,
environmental groups said.

Stephen Guilbeault of Greenpeace said the details of the use of forests to
absorb carbon dioxide were the last mechanism to be agreed before Kyoto
could start working, if ratified.

Matteoli also said that the conference resolved future funding of the U.N.
climate bureaucracy despite reluctance by the United States to fund Kyoto
measures.

Matteoli also signed a deal with oil and gas group ENI meant to cut Italy's
carbon dioxide at ENI oil and gas installations around the world.

--------------------------

**********************************************
Vincenzo FERRARA
Head of the ENEA Special Project on "Global Climate"
Italy's Focal Point of the IPCC

Tel.: +3906.3048.3608; +3932.9831.3189
Fax:  +3906.3048.6695
Web: <http://clima.casaccia.enea.it/ipcc/focalpoint/> 

________________ 

Date: Wed, 10 Dec 2003 12:11:11 +0100
To: Esperti:;
From: Vincenzo Ferrara <ferrara@mail.casaccia.enea.it>
Subject: INFO: Accordo sulla questione sinks forestali: nessuna esclusione
 degli organismi geneticamente modificati, nessuna esclusione delle
 monoculture e le foreste devono essere composte di alberi alti almeno 2
 metri e occupare almeno il 10% della superficie forestata.

U.N. talks permit GMO forests under Kyoto

Reuters - Wednesday, December 10, 2003

MILAN - A U.N. conference agreed on Tuesday to permit use of genetically
modified trees in forests planted to offset global warming, clearing a
final hurdle to the Kyoto protocol whose fate now hinges on Russia. The 180
nations left it up to each country to assess "potential risks" of using
genetically modified organisms (GMOs) under a set of rules promoting forest
plantings in the Third World to soak up greenhouse gases emitted by rich
nations.

The European Union had opposed inclusion of GMOs under Kyoto, fearing they
can threaten native species. Nations like the United States or Argentina
see benefits from GMOs as faster-growing and disease resistant. "This was
the last piece of this huge puzzle of Kyoto," Thelma Krug of Brazil, who
led the talks, told Reuters. "Every part was difficult." The rules on
forest plantings were formally adopted late on Tuesday by the December 1 to
12 conference.

The forest deal was the last to define the mechanisms of Kyoto. Remaining
issues include a fund to help developing nations adapt to the feared impact
of global warming, ranging from desertification to the melting of polar
icecaps. All plants absorb carbon dioxide as they grow, making them storage
"sinks" for carbon dioxide, a non-toxic, odourless gas blamed for
blanketing the globe since the Industrial Revolution and now mainly emitted
by power plants, factories and cars.

Environmentalists reckon that two trees, for instance, would be needed to
absorb the carbon dioxide produced per passenger on a return airline flight
from Milan to New York.

Under Kyoto, rich nations will be allowed to store up to one percent of
their annual emissions of carbon dioxide in such forest sinks. Kyoto seeks
to cut rich countries' emissions of carbon dioxide by 5.2 percent below
1990 levels by 2012.

Opposition to GMOs

Breaking the deadlock on GMOs, the text leaves it to each country to
"evaluate, in accordance with their national laws, potential risks
associated with the use of genetically modified organisms."

Greenpeace and the WWF environmental groups, who had opposed GMOs in Kyoto,
said the forest rules were "two steps forward, one step back." They faulted
failure to rule out plantations of single species forests like eucalyptus,
acacia or pines.

"At least the agreement shows that multilateralism works despite the U.S.
absence from Kyoto," said Jennifer Morgan, WWF climate change director.
"Kyoto is moving forward."

Many environmentalists want to stifle emissions at source, by shifting from
coal and gas to solar or wind power, rather than cleaning up emissions by
trying to store carbon in forests.

Some developing nations, like China and Brazil, saw too many rules on
forests as an infringement of sovereignty. Canada objected that rules, such
as taking account of cultural and religious sites in deciding where to
plant, were too complex.

The rules set in Tuesday's agreement even stipulate that trees must be at
least 2.0 metres (6 ft 7 in) tall and their canopies have to cover at least
10 percent of an area before they can count as a forestry project.

Kyoto will enter force only if it is agreed by nations responsible for 55
percent of emissions of carbon dioxide in rich states. It has reached 44
percent and needs Russia's 17 percent after the United States pulled out
its 36 percent share.

Separately, the U.N. Environment Programme, Greenpeace and the WWF launched
a new climate symbol - the earth pictured as a round candle with white wax
dripping from a flame in the Arctic.

Reuters

**********************************************
Vincenzo FERRARA
Head of the ENEA Special Project on "Global Climate"
Italy's Focal Point of the IPCC

Tel.: +3906.3048.3608; +3932.9831.3189
Fax:  +3906.3048.6695
Web: <http://clima.casaccia.enea.it/ipcc/focalpoint/>